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DIRE · 2025-05-23
Omar Shaban, founder and director of Palthink for Strategic Studies, argues that a Palestinian state is now unthinkable and that the only remaining path is to find a formula for a single state, possibly federal, in which the two peoples can live together. He says the 7 October 2023 war has reshaped the entire region, that public opinion in Gaza no longer supports Hamas after 19 months of war and devastation, and that Palestinians have lost trust in Europe while seeing the Palestinian cause as no longer a priority for the Arab world.
Omar Shaban, founder and director of Palthink for Strategic Studies, argues that a Palestinian state is now unthinkable and that the only remaining path is to find a formula for a single state, possibly federal, in which the two peoples can live together. He says the 7 October 2023 war has reshaped…
### Shaban’s lucid analysis (Palthink). “Everything has changed, the federal model is the only way”
ROME – “As of today, the prospect of a State of Palestine is unthinkable. We must find the most suitable formula to build a unitary state.” This is the starting point of the analysis by Omar Shaban, a political scientist specializing in the Middle East, founder and director of the think tank Palthink for Strategic Studies, established in the Gaza Strip in 2019. Shaban, met during a meeting in Cairo with a delegation of Italian politicians, is keen to stress: “I was born and raised in Gaza. I am an independent researcher who lived in the Strip, speaking with everyone, ordinary people and parties. I also built my perspective by working for ten years as a consultant to the Swiss government on reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.”
## OCTOBER 7 AND THE EFFECTS “ON THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST”
The political scientist continues: “We do not know whether the war of October 7, 2023,” which immediately caused 1,200 deaths and 244 hostages, “was the event that triggered the changes in the region, nor do we know whether this outcome was calculated. But it is certain that it had consequences not only in Gaza and the West Bank, but also in Lebanon, Syria and Iran,” where the Islamist movements have suffered a severe blow. Moreover, for Shaban, “today countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar are politically much stronger than others such as Iraq or Egypt.” An important element, considering that Iraq is involved in the Syrian file, while Egypt is—together with Qatar—the main mediator for the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
## THE GIDEON’S CHARIOTS OFFENSIVE AND CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS WIPED OUT
Negotiations which, since the Tel Aviv government launched the Gideon’s Chariots offensive to complete the conquest of Gaza, have “reached a dead end,” including with regard to the release of the Israeli hostages, as warned this week by the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recalled his delegates from Doha, while facing criticism from numerous countries, also after the “warning shots” fired by soldiers at a delegation of diplomats from 25 countries visiting Jenin, in the West Bank. The United Kingdom had already the previous day suspended trade relations with Tel Aviv, in protest against the military offensive and the total blockade on the entry of goods into the Strip, which has continued since March 2. The UN has warned that famine is imminent and that 14,000 children are at risk of death.
## MORE THAN 2 MILLION GAZA RESIDENTS CAUGHT BETWEEN RAIDS, DEPRIVATION AND DISPLACEMENT
Israel justifies these actions with the need to weaken Hamas, both by cutting supply channels and by demanding the takeover of military control of the territory. Gaza’s 2.2 million inhabitants thus continue to be in the grip of attacks and deprivation, as well as forced displacement toward the areas designated as “safe” by the Israeli army. Humanitarian bodies continue to recall that, under international law, aid cannot be denied, nor can it be made part of a military strategy, while rejecting the claim that supplies could end up in the hands of the political-military movement.
## “AFTER 19 MONTHS OF CONFLICT, PUBLIC OPINION IN THE STRIP DOES NOT SUPPORT HAMAS”
Thus, Shaban continues, these 19 months of conflict “have certainly profoundly changed Palestinian public opinion.” “The 80,000 tons of Israeli ordnance—40 kilos on average for every inhabitant of Gaza—have made Hamas no longer welcome in the Strip.” After 53,000 dead and the destruction of 80% of the Strip, “it is clear to everyone that the military option has failed: it is not possible to withstand the power of the Israeli army.” Stressing that “the population had nothing to do with October 7” and that the assault in southern Israel “was decided by the 15 members of Hamas’s Council,” Shaban reports: “A poll from two weeks ago shows that support for the Palestinian resistance movement has collapsed to 5%,” whereas “between May and June 2021—when elections were supposed to be held and were then canceled by the president of the Palestinian National Authority, under the pretext that Israel was preventing Palestinians in East Jerusalem from being able to vote—Hamas was polling at 15% in the Strip and 25% in the West Bank.” Therefore, “Palestinians now hope for the emergence of new political figures who do not limit themselves to words, but are capable of bringing forward concrete proposals and changes. The same polls cited, for example, put the Palestinian National Authority at 29%. We will witness the birth of a new leadership.” In short, after 20 years, for Omar Shaban, “the Palestinians of Gaza want Hamas to leave the government of the Strip, but not for a political reason, rather for a practical one: they know that otherwise, the international community will never support the reconstruction of Gaza.” If Hamas wants to remain, the expert suggests, it must settle for “participating in the Palestinian party system.”
## THE PALESTINIAN QUESTION IS NO LONGER A PRIORITY FOR THE ARAB WORLD; TRUST IN EUROPE LOST
For Palestinian public opinion, it would also be clear that “for the Arab world, the Palestinian cause is no longer a priority.” It would not have gone unnoticed that, “after President Trump’s visit to the Gulf,” aimed at relaunching trade and energy relations, the leaders of Qatar and Saudi Arabia “devoted only a few words to the ongoing genocide in Gaza.” According to the director of PalThink, the same applies “also to Europe: Palestinians are deeply disappointed by the positions expressed by European leaders, they have lost trust. Before,” the analyst stresses, “we had common values; now, if one of these leaders were to come to Gaza, what could he talk about? Human rights, which no longer exist? International law, which has failed? All this is very dangerous because it risks encouraging a wave of radicalization in Gaza. Let us not forget that this conflict has produced 20,000 orphans. How will they grow up and what do you think they will think of the West?” the question Shaban poses, adding: “Netanyahu is knowingly building his own future enemy.”
## “THE TWO-PEOPLES, TWO-STATES SOLUTION HAS NO CHANCE”
Finally, another victim of the conflict, Shaban warns, “is the ‘two peoples and two States’ solution, which I continue to hear about, although there is no longer any possibility that it will come to light. First, because it is a territory too small for two nations. But, more importantly, Israel — starting with Netanyahu and ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich — has no intention whatsoever of implementing it. It never wanted to.” Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin himself, “seriously interested in peace, was assassinated after the Oslo Accords by an Israeli, not a Palestinian.” Therefore, the PalThink expert concludes, “all that remains is to create a single State, perhaps looking to the model of federal States that already exist in Europe, finding a way for the two peoples to coexist peacefully, together.”
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Text © DIRE — archived here with attribution to the source. — Machine translation for archival reference. — Original source