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DIRE · 2025-05-23
Omar Shaban, founder and director of Palthink for Strategic Studies, argues that a Palestinian state is now unthinkable and that the only remaining path is to find a formula for a single state, possibly federal, in which the two peoples can live together. He says the 7 October 2023 war has reshaped the entire region, that public opinion in Gaza no longer supports Hamas after 19 months of war and devastation, and that Palestinians have lost trust in Europe while seeing the Palestinian cause as no longer a priority for the Arab world.
Omar Shaban, founder and director of Palthink for Strategic Studies, argues that a Palestinian state is now unthinkable and that the only remaining path is to find a formula for a single state, possibly federal, in which the two peoples can live together. He says the 7 October 2023 war has reshaped…
### Shaban’s lucid analysis (Palthink). “Everything has changed, the federal model is the only way”
ROME – “As of today, the prospect of a State of Palestine is unthinkable. We must find the most suitable formula to build a unitary state.” This is the starting point of the analysis by Omar Shaban, a political scientist specializing in the Middle East, founder and director of the think tank Palthink for Strategic Studies, established in the Gaza Strip in 2019. Shaban, met during a meeting in Cairo with a delegation of Italian politicians, is keen to preface: “I was born and raised in Gaza. I am an independent researcher who lived in the Strip, speaking with everyone, ordinary people and parties. I also built my perspective by working for ten years as a consultant to the Swiss government on reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.”
## OCTOBER 7 AND ITS EFFECTS “ON THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST”
The political scientist continues: “We do not know whether the war of October 7, 2023,” which immediately caused 1,200 deaths and 244 hostages, “was the event that triggered the changes in the region, nor do we know whether this outcome was calculated. But it is certain that it had consequences not only in Gaza and the West Bank, but also in Lebanon, Syria and Iran,” where Islamist movements have suffered a severe blow. Moreover, for Shaban, “today countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar are politically much stronger than others such as Iraq or Egypt.” An important element, considering that Iraq is involved in the Syrian file, while Egypt is—together with Qatar—the main mediator for the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
## THE GIDEON’S CHARIOTS OFFENSIVE AND CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS WIPED OUT
Negotiations which, since the Tel Aviv government launched the Gideon’s Chariots offensive to complete the conquest of Gaza, have “reached a dead end,” also regarding the release of the Israeli hostages, as warned this week by the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recalled his delegates from Doha, while facing criticism from numerous countries, also after the “warning shots” fired by soldiers at a delegation of diplomats from 25 countries visiting Jenin, in the West Bank. The United Kingdom had already suspended trade relations with Tel Aviv the previous day, as a sign of protest against the military offensive and the total blockade on the entry of goods into the Strip, which has continued since March 2. The UN has warned that famine is imminent and that 14,000 children are at risk of dying.
## MORE THAN 2 MILLION GAZA RESIDENTS CAUGHT BETWEEN RAIDS, DEPRIVATION AND DISPLACEMENT
Israel justifies these actions by the need to weaken Hamas, both by cutting supply channels and by demanding military control of the territory. Gaza’s 2.2 million inhabitants thus continue to be caught in the grip of attacks and deprivation, as well as forced displacement toward the areas designated as “safe” by the Israeli army. Humanitarian organizations continue to recall that, under international law, aid cannot be denied, nor made part of a military strategy, while denying the claim that supplies could end up in the hands of the politico-military movement.
## “AFTER 19 MONTHS OF CONFLICT, PUBLIC OPINION IN THE STRIP DOES NOT SUPPORT HAMAS”
Thus, Shaban continues, these 19 months of conflict “have certainly profoundly changed Palestinian public opinion.” “The 80,000 tons of Israeli ordnance—40 kilos on average for each resident of Gaza—have made Hamas no longer welcome in the Strip.” After 53,000 deaths and the destruction of 80% of the Strip, “it is clear to everyone that the military option has failed: it cannot withstand comparison with the power of the Israeli army.” Stressing that “the population had nothing to do with October 7” and that the attack in southern Israel “was decided by the 15 members of the Hamas Council,” Shaban states: “A poll from two weeks ago shows that support for the Palestinian resistance movement has collapsed to 5%,” whereas “between May and June 2021—when elections were supposed to be held and were then canceled by the president of the Palestinian National Authority, on the pretext that Israel was preventing Palestinians in East Jerusalem from voting—Hamas was polling at 15% in the Strip and 25% in the West Bank.” Therefore, “Palestinians now hope for the emergence of new political figures who do not limit themselves to words, but know how to bring forward concrete proposals and changes. The same polls cited, for example, put the Palestinian National Authority at 29%. We will witness the birth of a new leadership.” In short, after 20 years, for Omar Shaban “the Palestinians of Gaza want Hamas to leave the government of the Strip, but not for a political reason—rather, for a practical one: they know that otherwise, the international community will never support the reconstruction of Gaza.” If Hamas wants to remain, the expert suggests, it must be content to “participate in the Palestinian party system.”
## PALESTINIAN QUESTION NO LONGER A PRIORITY FOR THE ARAB WORLD; TRUST IN EUROPE LOST
For Palestinian public opinion, it would also be clear that “for the Arab world, the Palestinian cause is no longer a priority.” It would not have gone unnoticed that, “after President Trump’s visit to the Gulf,” aimed at relaunching trade and energy relations, the leaders of Qatar and Saudi Arabia “devoted only a few words to the ongoing genocide in Gaza.” According to the director of Palthink, the same applies “also to Europe: Palestinians are deeply disappointed by the positions expressed by European leaders, they have lost trust. Before,” the analyst points out, “we had common values; now if one of these leaders were to come to Gaza, what could he talk about? Human rights, which no longer exist? International law, which has failed? All this is very dangerous because it risks encouraging a wave of radicalization in Gaza. Let us not forget that this conflict has produced 20,000 orphans. How will they grow up and what do you think they will think of the West?”—the question Shaban poses, adding: “Netanyahu is consciously building his own future enemy.”
## “THE TWO-PEOPLES, TWO-STATES SOLUTION HAS NO CHANCE”
Lastly, another victim of the conflict, Shaban warns, “is the ‘two peoples and two states’ solution, which I keep hearing about, although there is no longer any possibility that it will come to light. First, because it is a territory too small for two nations. But, more importantly, Israel—from Netanyahu to ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich—has no intention whatsoever of implementing it. It never wanted it.” Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin himself, “seriously interested in peace, was assassinated after the Oslo Accords by an Israeli, not a Palestinian.” Therefore, the Palthink expert concludes, “all that remains is to create a single state, perhaps looking to the model of federal states that already exist in Europe, finding a way for the two peoples to coexist peacefully, together.”
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