Media coverage
SRF · 2025-01-28
Omar Shaban, director of Pal-Think, argues that Hamas’s rule in Gaza is nearing its end because the movement would no longer be accepted as a government by either the international community or the local population; he proposes a two- to three-year transitional period in which local Gaza committees would administer the territory in coordination with the Palestinian Authority and the international community, followed by elections in Gaza and the West Bank. By contrast, Hussein Ibish says Israel’s refusal to discuss a postwar order and a civilian Palestinian alternative effectively leaves only two options: a full Israeli reoccupation of Gaza or the return of Hamas rule, and he suggests that maintaining Palestinian political division may suit Israel’s strategy.
Omar Shaban, director of Pal-Think, argues that Hamas’s rule in Gaza is nearing its end because the movement would no longer be accepted as a government by either the international community or the local population; he proposes a two- to three-year transitional period in which local Gaza committees…
Israel has failed to achieve its war aim of destroying Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, Omar Shaban, director of the independent Palestinian think tank Pal-Think, is convinced that the rule of the militant Islamists over Gaza will soon be over.
“The Hamas knows very well that it would no longer be accepted as a government either by the international community or by the local population,” says the political analyst from Gaza, who has been living in exile in Cairo since October 2023.
But who is capable of taking over the business of government? The Palestinian Authority (PA) in the occupied West Bank has put itself forward, but Shaban dismisses the idea: the PA simply does not have the capacity for it. Besides, it is very unpopular.
## Local committees are to govern
Instead, Shaban proposes a transitional period of two to three years: “Local committees from Gaza could take over the administration during this time, in cooperation with the Palestinian Authority and the international community.” After that, elections should be held, in Gaza and in the West Bank, because the Palestinians need a new political leadership.
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Thousands of displaced Palestinians are making their way to the north of the Gaza Strip. (27.1.2025).
Image source: Keystone/ Mohammad Abu Samra.
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Thousands of displaced Palestinians are making their way to the north of the Gaza Strip. (27.1.2025)
Keystone/ Mohammad Abu Samra
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They want to return home. (27.01.2025).
Image source: Keystone/ Abed Hajjar.
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They want to return home. (27.01.2025)
Keystone/ Abed Hajjar
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However, many houses are now nothing but ruins, as here in Rafah. (24.1.2025).
Image source: Keystone/ Jehad Alshrafi.
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However, many houses are now nothing but ruins, as here in Rafah. (24.1.2025)
Keystone/ Jehad Alshrafi
Omar Shaban gives Hamas only a few more months in Gaza. As a political and military power, it has been shattered. “There will be no reconstruction in Gaza if Hamas remains there. Not a single country, not even an Arab one, would otherwise pay. Hamas must step aside.”
Hussein Ibish, an expert at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C., disagrees. Hamas may be unpopular in Gaza, but it cares little about that. The Islamists will retain control over Gaza. “Israel still refuses to discuss a post-war order and a civilian Palestinian alternative in Gaza. That leaves only two options open: a full Israeli reoccupation, for which the army is not prepared. Or precisely what is happening now: the return of Hamas rule,” Ibish says.
## Israel’s strategic decision?
Ibish suspects a strategic decision by Israel behind this. “October 7, 2023 has not changed Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians. The government prefers to maintain the political division within the Palestinians: Hamas in Gaza, and the PA in the West Bank. This division prevents unity among the Palestinians, which could strengthen the moderate, secular camp and ultimately lead to the creation of a Palestinian state.” Officially, however, Israel speaks out against the continuation of Hamas rule in Gaza.
It is in the hands of Hamas and Israel first to adhere to the ceasefire agreement and to decide on a post-war order. The war is not yet over.
Echo der Zeit, 23.01.2025, 6 p.m.
Text © SRF — archived here with attribution to the source. — Machine translation for archival reference. — Original source