Media coverage
Deutsche Welle Português · 2012-11-20
The article reports that rumors of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas proved premature, while talks continued in Cairo with mediation from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. It says analysts and Omar Shaban view any truce as temporary unless a broader political process resumes to address the blockade, security, and the risk of escalation into a costlier ground war.
The article reports that rumors of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas proved premature, while talks continued in Cairo with mediation from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. It says analysts and Omar Shaban view any truce as temporary unless a broader political process resumes to address the blockade, sec…
Rumors that a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian radical group Hamas (which governs the Gaza Strip) had been reached took over the international press early on the evening of Tuesday (20/11), after people linked to those groups said that the truce was imminent.
But nothing that had been announced was confirmed, and Hamas itself ended up revising its earlier statement. “The Israeli side has still not responded, so we will not hold a press conference tonight and we need to wait until tomorrow,” Ezzat al-Rishq, one of Hamas’s main leaders, told the Reuters news agency.
The talks between the two sides are being conducted in Cairo. The negotiators gathered in the Egyptian capital do not have much time—only 24, at most 48 hours—if they want to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, said Yossi Mekelberg of the British think tank Chatham House, “otherwise, the conflict will turn into a real war.” In other words: Israel will send infantry troops into the region, which will result in an even greater number of civilian casualties.
Mekelberg is worried: after all, Israeli reservists have been called up and are stationed on the border with Gaza. Meanwhile, the mutual attacks continue. “Listen to this,” said Omar Shaban, director of Pal-Think, a local think tank, “it is a missile that has just passed over my house.” For days he has not left his home, in Gaza City.
He told Deutsche Welle that, that morning, just 20 meters away, three people had been killed by Israeli weapons. Shaban said he was very apprehensive about the situation. On the other hand, the fact that everyone is gathered at the negotiating table shows that both Israel and Hamas seek a de-escalation of the violence, he observed.
## In the hands of the regional powers
Since last weekend, representatives of the parties to the conflict have been meeting in the Egyptian capital with mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey.
“The Israelis are insisting on their own security,” said Mekelberg, summarizing the demands of both sides. “They do not want any more missiles to be fired between Gaza and Israel. Hamas needs Israel to ensure that it will ease the blockade and open the border between Gaza and the rest of the world.”
It is the representatives of the Egyptian government who are driving the negotiations forward, with Qatari support. Mekelberg defines it this way: “Egypt has the political impact and Qatar the financial means.”
Cairo, which has already mediated several ceasefires between the two entities, would be considerably strengthened if the talks succeed. “This could represent an important milestone for Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi as a regional peacemaker,” Mekelberg commented.
In the end, it is Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey that will have to take the lead in the negotiations. “The United States does not want to assume the lead,” said Yesid Sayigh of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.
“This is the policy that [the US] has adopted with almost everything since the intervention in Libya, through Syria and now. They do not want to take the lead, above all because that would inevitably mean having to exert some kind of pressure on Israel, at some point.”
The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, spoke with Morsi on Monday (19/11), and on Wednesday he is due to meet with the Israeli and Palestinian delegations.
However, Sayigh believes that the UN’s role will be limited as long as Washington is not involved. “The UN has no more power than what its key members grant it,” he said. On the other hand, the organization “has obviously been paralyzed regarding Syria,” and he is certain that it will support any plan coming from the Egyptians.
Shaban, of Pal-Think, is also convinced that the UN’s role will only be supportive. “The United Nations does not have much influence over Hamas, not least because Ban Ki-moon has only been in Gaza twice.” For him, the key lies in the hands of Egypt and Qatar.
It is up to the regional powers, especially Egypt, to reverse the escalation of violence. According to Mekelberg and Shaban, these countries know this. No one has an interest in a war, neither the Palestinians of Gaza nor the Egyptians, who are already facing numerous internal problems, as Mekelberg pointed out.
Speaking to the German broadcaster WDR, Israel’s former ambassador to Germany Avi Primor assured that his country does not want a war either. For “we know it would be disastrous for everyone” and would only bring temporary calm for Israelis, Primor stressed.
## A ceasefire is not a solution either
According to Shaban, the same applies to a ceasefire. “We do not believe that such an armistice would be maintained by both sides for many years. That is why, all the time, we call for a political solution, so that peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians may resume.”
He wants the US and the European Union, especially Germany and the United Kingdom, to push both sides toward the negotiating table and peace talks. The director of Pal-Think also fears that the militant Salafist groups that have emerged in Gaza in recent years could undermine any ceasefire, although “until now, Hamas has managed to keep them under control.”
Sayigh said that it will only be possible to exercise effective control over the groups if Hamas reaches an agreement with Tel Aviv so that both sides attack only military targets. “Then Hamas will be able to say: we forced Israel to agree to this, and now you too will have to abide by the agreement.”
For Mekelberg as well, the ceasefire is nothing more than a temporary solution. "Perhaps both sides will realize that life in Gaza needs to be more bearable, and southern Israel more secure." According to the Chatham House member, this would be the first step toward a political process that the Middle East urgently needs – but for longer than the next 48 hours.
By: Naomi Conrad (av)
Edited by: Alexandre Schossler
Text © Deutsche Welle Português — archived here with attribution to the source. — Machine translation for archival reference. — Original source