Publication
Omar Shaban Ismail · RFI — Radio France Internationale · 2021
RFI interview on Palestinian elections and the international community's role in supporting democratic renewal amid division and occupation.
This is the first time in nearly fifteen years that dates for national elections have been announced in the Palestinian Territories. Mahmoud Abbas signed a decree setting the legislative elections for 22 May and the presidential election for 31 July. After 13 years of dispute between the two main Palestinian movements, Fatah in power in the West Bank and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, are they on the verge of reconciliation? Should we believe in the prospect of this vote? Omar Shaban is a political scientist and director of the PalThink think tank based in Gaza; he answers RFI’s questions.
Published on: 16/01/2021 - 20:51
RFI: The publication of a decree announcing the date of elections has been announced many times in recent years, but it has never happened. This time, dates have been set. How can this rapprochement between the two main Palestinian movements be explained?
Omar Shaban: The regional context has changed. I think President Abbas wants to show the Biden administration, before it takes office next week, that the Palestinian Authority has already made some changes. And I think Hamas also realizes on its side that the atmosphere in the region is different.
Some observers consider that the reconciliation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia makes it difficult for Hamas to continue as before. Egypt, which was one of the countries boycotting Qatar, asked Qatar to support Hamas less actively. And according to our information, Qatar advised Hamas to be more conciliatory. I also think that Turkey no longer supports Hamas in the same way as before. There have been shifts in the positions of Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
The new US administration, for its part, has sent messages to the Palestinian Authority about the need for reforms. The European Union has also required the Palestinian Authority to make fundamental changes. It cannot continue to support it financially, to the tune of 300 to 400 million euros per year, without there being signs of reform. The context also pushed President Abbas to issue this decree. You know, you cannot go on doing nothing forever. There has been nothing for 15 years except an increase in the suffering of the Palestinian people.
Also listen to: Fifteen years after Abbas’s election, Palestinians dream of change
These elections were announced several times, but they could never be organized. The attempts ultimately always ran up against the profound divergences of the two parties. Is this rapprochement, this time, serious?
The presidential decree published yesterday makes things more serious. There was a kind of agreement between Fatah and Hamas after different rounds of negotiations in Turkey, in Istanbul, in Doha and in Cairo. Nothing has been announced regarding this agreement, but the two parties discussed several issues. All Palestinian movements are nevertheless invited next week to Cairo to discuss other issues. There are still many points that could prevent the elections.
One of them is each side’s political program. Hamas does not believe in the Oslo process (editor’s note: the peace process launched with Israel in the 1990s that led to the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993). The Palestinian Authority ratified the Oslo Accords, and the elections are taking place in the context of those agreements between the PLO and Israel.
► Also read: The Palestinian Authority announces the holding of general elections in May and July
Another possible point of contention concerns freedom of expression: to what extent the Palestinian Authority will allow Hamas to campaign and express itself in the West Bank. Obviously, the same question arises in reverse in Gaza: to what extent Hamas will allow Fatah to address the people. So they must discuss and agree on these questions. If they find common ground on these questions, I think the two parties will move forward on the path to elections because they have received incentives to do so.
Beyond the real willingness or otherwise of the main protagonists, is the holding of a vote in the Palestinian territories also dependent on international support?
When we talk about Palestine, the international community has an important role to play. First of all, it must mediate between the Palestinian Authority and Israel to allow this vote to take place. The West Bank is occupied by Israel; the Gaza Strip is under Israeli blockade. So these elections require Israel’s approval. The international community intervened during the 1996 and 2006 elections, and that is why those two votes were able to take place.
One of the questions that remains unresolved for the moment is the holding of elections in Jerusalem. Will the Israelis allow the Palestinians who live in Jerusalem to vote, whether physically or even online? The last time an attempt to hold elections failed was in the middle of last year. And one of the reasons for that failure, among others, was that the Israelis refused to allow elections in Jerusalem (editor’s note: Israel claims Jerusalem as its united and indivisible capital and has annexed the eastern part of the city). At that time, Israel had the full support of the Trump administration. But the Biden administration has a more moderate position. And things may be different.
Obviously, the international community must also send observers. It must also support the organization of these elections financially and technically. And train the Palestinians who will work on the campaign.
I remain skeptical, because as Palestinians, we live under Israeli occupation, which controls all aspects of our lives, including this future election.
Topic: Palestinian Politics — Text © RFI — Radio France Internationale — archived here with attribution to the source. — Original source