Media coverage
Observador (Portugal) · 2021-05-17
An analysis piece in Portugal's Observador during the second week of the May 2021 war, in which analysts argue that both Israel and Hamas want a ceasefire but each wants to claim victory first. Speaking from Gaza, Omar Shaban says neither side wanted this fight: they were drawn into it gradually until it snowballed out of control, and it is easy to start a war but hard to end one.
An analysis piece in Portugal's Observador during the second week of the May 2021 war, in which analysts argue that both Israel and Hamas want a ceasefire but each wants to claim victory first. Speaking from Gaza, Omar Shaban says neither side wanted this fight: they were drawn into it gradually un…
A week after the start of the escalation of violence in Israel and the Gaza Strip, the bombs dropped by the Israeli Army continue to fall intensely on the Palestinian enclave, from where rockets also continue to be fired by Hamas militants toward Israel. Calls for a ceasefire are increasing day by day, at a time when both Israel and Hamas want to be able to declare victory domestically before putting a brake on the large-scale offensives.
The violence and heated rhetoric coming both from Tel Aviv and from the Palestinian enclave suggest that the hostilities are not likely to cease soon and that the appeals of the international community are not having an effect. The analysts consulted by Observador, however, believe that both sides are interested in bringing the conflict to an end and that this could happen soon, foreseeing a truce within the next two to four days. Before that, however, both Israel and Hamas want to send the domestic message that they have managed to impose a defeat on the other side.
“Both sides are prepared to end the conflict, because they know they will not achieve dramatic gains, but both want to have the last word, to fire the last rocket or drop the last bomb. And because of that, we are in this equation,” summarizes Michael Milshtein, director of the Forum for Palestinian Studies at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. “Both understand how important image is, and they want to be portrayed as winners,” he adds.
After a weekend in which an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council ended without consensus and in which a daily peak in casualties was recorded on Sunday (42 deaths), this Monday was marked by a new rise in the intensity of the bombardments in the Gaza Strip.
The Palestinian death toll in Gaza rises to 200
The Israeli Security Forces announced the death of Hussam Abu Harbeed, commander of Islamic Jihad — an Islamist group that operates alongside Hamas in Gaza — and the destruction of a 15-kilometre tunnel network used by Palestinian militants for military actions against Tel Aviv, for smuggling materials, many of them used to manufacture explosives, and to circumvent the blockade imposed by Israel.
According to the Israeli authorities, which have also claimed the killing of several Hamas commanders and attacks against the homes of important figures in the Islamist movement, Hussam Abu Harbeed was responsible for attacks against Israeli civilians. In retaliation, Islamic Jihad launched rockets at the coastal city of Ashdod, causing at least seven injuries, from shrapnel from a building struck by fire from Gaza.
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As for this Monday’s Israeli bombardments, they caused power outages in the Gaza Strip and also destroyed several homes, some, according to the Israeli authorities, belonging to Hamas militants and commanders, others to civilians. In the past week, according to the United Nations, more than 40,000 civilians have fled their homes, and there are fears of a worsening humanitarian crisis.
At the root of the escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas and Islamic Jihad, meanwhile extended to the West Bank, which has been the scene of protests in solidarity with Gaza and against the occupation, but also to Israeli cities, where clashes between Israeli Arabs and Jews continue, is the accumulation of several events that ultimately brought tensions to an unprecedented level since 2014, the date of the last war between Israel and Hamas.
What led to the increase in violence between Israel and Palestine? And what could happen next? 10 questions and answers
From the outset, one of the initial events occurred with the protests against the expulsion of Palestinian families from the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood, in West Jerusalem, followed by an intervention by the Israeli authorities in the Temple Mount compound, where the Al-Aqsa Mosque is located, the third holiest site in Islam after Mecca and Medina. Hamas responded to the repression of the Palestinian protests with rocket attacks and Israel retaliated by beginning bombardments against the Palestinian enclave, followed by a spiral of uninterrupted violence.
“Neither side is interested in this fight. They were gradually led into it and then a snowball effect was generated, out of control. It is easy to start a war, but difficult to end it,” laments Omar Shaban, founder and director of PalThink for Strategic Studies, a Palestinian think tank, speaking from Gaza, describing a scenario of great destruction and uncertainty in the Palestinian enclave.
At a time when the latest toll reports the death of at least 204 Palestinians (including 58 children) and ten Israelis (including two children) since the start of the bombardments a week ago, calls from the international community for a ceasefire to be reached continue, with the spiral of violence, which has caused the deaths mainly of civilians, impossible to justify.
“It seems that both sides are moving toward a ceasefire, and each will claim its own narrative of victory,” foresees analyst Mairav Zonszein, of the think tank International Crisis Group, which specializes in war prevention. “Israel has been trying to destroy as much Hamas infrastructure and as many commanders as possible before international pressure forces a ceasefire, which I believe could emerge in the coming days,” the analyst adds.
▲ Israeli Iron Dome defense system intercepts rockets launched by Hamas
AFP via Getty Images
In this sense, the destruction of the tunnel network and the death of several militants from Islamist groups (the Israeli authorities speak of at least 130 Palestinian fighters killed) should be presented by Israel as proof that it has managed to neutralise part of the attacks coming from Gaza, in addition to having destroyed infrastructure belonging to the Islamist group, which should take quite some time to recover. As military affairs specialist journalist Judah Ari Gross writes in the Times of Israel, “the Israel Defense Forces believe they have significantly hit Hamas and that this is the best they can do for now”.
Iron Dome. How the Israeli defence system that intercepted 90% of Hamas rockets in seconds works
As for Hamas, which saw the first legislative elections in 15 years in Palestine, where it had expected to achieve good results, postponed, it is seeking to outdo Fatah (which governs the West Bank) and demonstrate strength to Israel, having fired more than three thousand rockets in the past week — although around 90% were intercepted by the Iron Dome defence system. The persistence of these attacks and the rhetoric surrounding the defence of Jerusalem can therefore be used as internal political gains.
“Hamas already claimed victory after firing rockets at Jerusalem on Jerusalem Day [10 May, a national holiday in Israel on which Israelis celebrate the reunification of the holy city] and, in doing so, conveyed the message that, if Israel continues with its policies in East Jerusalem, it can expect rockets,” stresses Mairav Zonszein, adding that Hamas “began firing rockets a week ago in an attempt to present itself as the defender of the Palestinians”.
Since the escalation of violence reached enormous proportions, especially when the possibility of a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip seemed a reality, Hamas, between rhetoric and attacks against Israel, has already shown willingness to reach a ceasefire agreement with the Israeli authorities, which has so far been denied.
In this sense, for analyst Michael Milshtein, the Islamist movement that governs Gaza is “in a very complex situation” and that is why it continues to launch rockets against Israel, in order to “secure a victory” in the eyes of the Palestinians.
“The conflict is much longer and more intense than Hamas anticipated. Therefore, it is trying to show that it is strong enough to continue the conflict. It is only concerned with its image,” stresses the Israeli analyst, who considers that pressure from Qatar on the Islamist movement may be crucial for an agreement to be reached soon.
▲ Clashes and violence spread to the occupied West Bank
AFP via Getty Images
In addition to Qatar, Egypt as well, which has historically played a decisive role in mediating conflicts between Israelis and Palestinians, has been trying to negotiate with both sides. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi joined his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, on Monday and, standing side by side in Paris, they called for “an end to hostilities” in the region.
Gaza. Building housing Al Jazeera and AP offices collapses after Israeli attack — and White House issues warning
As for the United States, a country decisive in the outcome of the crisis, it again defended on Monday “Israel’s right to defend itself”. However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on both sides to protect the lives of civilians and children and said, at a press conference, that he had asked Israel for explanations regarding the attack on the headquarters of Al Jazeera and the Associated Press over the weekend.
However, despite insisting on the need for an end to the violence between Israelis and Palestinians, Blinken did not press very hard for the imposition of a truce, reiterating that “ultimately, it is up to the parties to make clear that they want a ceasefire”.
Israeli aircraft launched new attacks on Gaza. UN Security Council failed to reach agreement
It should be added that on Monday, for the third time since the start of the violence, the United States blocked a UN Security Council resolution calling for “an end to the violence and respect for international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians, especially children”, according to the BBC. A position that has isolated the United States externally, and increased internal criticism, including from the left wing of the Democratic Party, of President Joe Biden.
Middle East. European Union ministers meet in emergency session on Tuesday
The United States special envoy to the region, Hady Amr, Antony Blinken and Joe Biden himself have been engaged in meetings and telephone calls (including those of the US President with Benjamin Netanyahu and with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas), and, according to diplomats cited by the Guardian, the US position at the United Nations may be a way of not interfering with negotiations that are taking place behind the scenes. On Tuesday, the foreign ministers of the European Union are also meeting in emergency session.
As for the Israeli government and Hamas, they are maintaining a threatening tone. While Netanyahu continues to say that the attacks will continue “with full force” and that the offensive by the Hebrew state will continue, Hamas, through its spokesman Abu Ubaidah, has promised attacks against Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, bombs and rockets continue to fall on Gaza and Israel, respectively, despite a ceasefire appearing on the horizon.
Text © Observador (Portugal) — archived here with attribution to the source. — Machine translation for archival reference. — Original source