Media coverage
Deutsche Welle (Indonesian) · 2012-11-21
DW Indonesia during the November 2012 war, speaking to Omar Shaban, director of Pal Think, as a rocket passed over his house. He doubts a ceasefire will last without a real political solution, wants the United States and Europe to revive peace plans, and fears Salafi militants.
24, at most 48 hours: the authorities in Cairo have that much time to negotiate a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. This is the view of Yossi Mekelberg of the think tank "Chatham House." "Otherwise, the conflict will turn into a real war." That means: Israel will send ground troops into Gaza. "Then there will be many casualties." Mekelberg is worried. Many soldiers have already been deployed to the Gaza border.
Meanwhile, the fighting in Gaza continues. "Do you hear that? There is a rocket flying over my house," said Omar Shaban. Shaban is the director of Pal Think, an organization in Gaza. For days he has not left his home in Gaza City.
Shaban is worried that no agreement will be reached, but the fact that both sides are willing to negotiate shows that the escalation is decreasing.
In Cairo, representatives of both sides have been negotiating since the weekend with representatives from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. "Israel emphasizes the security issue. They do not want any more rockets launched from Gaza into Israel. Hamas needs guarantees that Israel will ease the blockade and open the border between Gaza and the outside world," said Meckelberg.
The negotiation mediation is being led by representatives of the Egyptian government and supported by Qatar. Because: "Egypt has political capacity and Qatar financial means," Meckelberg explained. If the talks succeed, Egypt’s position, having repeatedly helped ceasefire efforts between Hamas and Israel, will become even stronger. "This could be a breakthrough for Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi as a 'peace broker' in the region," Mekelberg added.
Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar have no other choice but to play the leading role. "The US is pulling back, because sooner or later they would have to pressure Israel," said Yezid Sayigh of the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut.
## The UN is only playing a supporting role
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon was also present at the meeting in Cairo. However, Sayigh believes the UN still will not play a major role as long as the US does not become more involved. The UN only has the power given to it by its members. "Most of them are not involved and are still divided over the situation in Syria." Sayigh is convinced that the UN will also support the plan proposed by Egypt.
Omar Shaban is also convinced that the UN cannot do much. "The UN does not have much influence over Hamas. Among other things because Ban Ki Moon has only come to Gaza twice." Shaban also has more confidence in Egypt and Qatar.
## No one wants war
So it depends on the regional powers, especially Egypt, to end the fighting. Mekelberg and Shaban believe that Egypt is also aware of the importance of its role.
War is not wanted in the region. The people of Gaza do not want it, nor do the people of Egypt, "who are dealing with domestic political problems," said Melkeberg.
Israel also does not want war, said former Israeli ambassador to Germany Avi Primor in an interview with WDR, "we know its consequences will be bad for all sides." A war in Gaza would only bring temporary calm for Israel.
## A ceasefire is not a long-term solution
A ceasefire is only temporary. Omar Shaban is convinced of this. "I am not convinced that a ceasefire will last long, unless there is a real political solution to the Middle East conflict." He supports the United States and Europe sitting down together again and discussing a peace plan.
However, Shaban is worried that Salafi militant groups, which have grown stronger in recent years in Gaza, could become uncontrollable during a ceasefire. "So far Hamas has managed to control them." In order to be stronger in fighting radical groups in the future, Hamas needs an agreement with Israel that would allow both sides only to strike military targets.
Sayigh of the Carnegie Centre added: "Then Hamas can say, 'We have this agreement with Israel, you must abide by it as well.'"
Mekelberg is also convinced that a ceasefire is only an interim solution. "Perhaps both sides will finally realize that life in Gaza should become more bearable and southern Israel should become safer." This is the first step toward the political process that the Middle East urgently needs.
Text © Deutsche Welle (Indonesian) — archived here with attribution to the source. — Machine translation for archival reference. — Original source